My analysis on the 3rd part of girls und panzer finale
Updated: Mar 18
In the theme of the upcoming movie I will provide a handful of theory's that might be plausible with the trailer I've seen. Now for some context
Ooarai Girls Academy is the "main" academy of the series with tanks from a multitude of time periods and nations
Chi-Ha-Tan Academy is a world war 2 themed school based on Japanese tanks and tactics.
It is no wonder that the background of the battle would entail a forest similar to the pacific regions of ww2 where the Japanese fought the Americans in limited tank battles as the terrain was too rough and even in tank battles the superior m4 Sherman at the time would have wiped them before Japan could develop more highly armored and powered tanks.
This is the poster for the upcoming movie which already provides some hints as to what the battle will entail. The battle seems to take place in a forest type biome which can be referenced to the world war 2 pacific island hopping campaign.
During the Pacific Campaign, they encountered heavily forested areas of land where Japanese forest would hunker down and create bunkers and traps resulting in huge causalities to the Americans. Having the Japanese face Ooarai Girls academy in this setting will be to their advantage as it was basically their home field.
Now lets take a look at the tanks that each school will contest in
Ooari Girls Academy:
- Panzer IV Ausf D. (F2) (H)
- Jagdpanzer 38 Hetzer
- Type 89 I - Go
- Sturmgeschütz III Ausf.F
- Medium M3 Lee
- Renault Char B1 bis
- Type-3 Chi-Nu
- Porsche Tiger
- British Mark IV (WW1)
A very decent team of tanks with a mix of powerful and "fast" tanks. Although speed should be negated in this analysis as girls und panzer is known to ignore the speed of a tank. However there is a multitude of problems that could occur with this team.
The Sturmgeschütz III Ausf.F is German tank destroyer with a very powerful 7.5 cm cannon. Although one big flaw that this will face is unability to turn its cannon. Having to rely on its tracks to turn its turn rate becomes incredibly slow. As the battle would take place in a forest this tank will just become a huge target for the light and fast tanks that the Japanese have.
Now before diving into other theories lets look at the tanks of
A mix of
- Type 97 Chi-Ha
- Type 95 Ha-Go
- Type 97 Chi-Ha Shin Ho To
- Type 2 Ka-Mi
As you can see here none of these tanks are partially powerful. In other episodes the Chi-Ha-Tan was the laughing stock of "senshado". As they use unnecessary banzai attacks in tanks that were never built with tank to tank battle in mind.
As seen in the movie Girls Und Panzer Der film they rushed the British team of more heavily armored/powered matildas and a churchill, but the one thing they forgot was that the land was flat very flat. So unlike the forest battle that we'll see in the upcoming movie the Japanese basically stood no chance in one on one combat. Why is that?
The Japanese Type 97 Chi-Ha tank was a infantry support vehicle as they did not care to put more powerful guns or more armor on it as the main focus of the tanks were not to counter the Americans rather it was invading china who didn't have the infrastructure to produce tanks and fight very well.
The Japanese however, did respond to the American Sherman by producing the Type 3 Chi-Nu and the heavier Type 4 Chi-To however theses tanks were developed late into the war and many of them were being held back from the frontlines as the Japanese was expecting a home invasion of Japan after the Americans were successful in taking the Pacific islands.
Now in the trailer they introduce one new tank in the Chi-Ha-Tan team
The Type 2 Ka-Mi Amphibious Tank
Using the Type 95 Ha-Go as the base they built a amphibious tank they developed it to take amphibious missions against the American Pacific Campaign but mostly failed. However, in the trailer it undertakes surprise attacks on Ooarai possibly blocking paths of escape that they had planned to go through. One thing the Type 2 is a decently powerful cannon. Having a Type 1 37 mm anti tank gun able to penetrate lighter tanks light the US M3 Stuart but could not stand up to the much heavier armored M4 Sherman. In light tanks perspective Ooarai has some lightly armored tanks that will possibly be eliminated by this tank most likely the Type 89 I - Go
Now the strategies in the trailer seem to be subjective and based on the if the match is elimination or flag tank. So we will have to travel both paths
Elimination: Although this possibility is unlikely
The Elimination theory will entail Japanese forces isolating said tanks. As said before these tanks cannot go head to head with tanks especially a Panzer IV (H). However, they are using the forest to their advantage. The camo on their tanks will provide the necessary cover to come close enough to a tank to avoid a "direct" conflict. A very guerilla tactic compared to what they have done in the past. Its gonna be hard to predict the tactics they will use as they seem to have evolved from previous seasons to much more organized group.
They also utilize "flares. I say flares as the mortar shell that they had used i could not figure out so we will just summarize it as a flare.
The flares would be fired into the sky whenever an attack would ensue making it even hard for the team to spot the camouflaged Japanese tanks because of how our eyes* work
*(To summarize how the flare will benefit Chi-Ha-Tan the human eye dilates at a bright light. This is the reason why things like flashbangs are effective in urban combat. As the flare burns bright in the night sky our eyes will register the flare as the normal standard of light resulting in not being able to see the surrounding area due to being to dark. Making it harder for the tanks to counter the attacks on them as you would see only black if you look out a tank sight. A very ingenious solution by the Chi-Ha-Tan Academy.)
The driver of the panzer iv has some eye strain as seen by the eyebrows because driving in a forest in a tank is not very easy and visibility becomes very low. In a tactical sense they would have to rely on the commanders eye sight heavily to avoid crashing even more when there is a fire fight.
Flag Tank Battle: The most likely
A flag tank battle will name one tank on each team to be a flag tank if that tank is eliminated the whole team would be eliminated. I write this as the most likely as the formations used by Oorai suggested a flag tank due to a central tank being protected.
This X Formation may be protecting a central tank which would be the Jagdpanzer 38 Hetzer but it could also be a forward attacking formation which the heavier tanks in the back and the lighter tanks in the front. This can also be a protection from the attacking Japanese swarm. From what i can see I think the Porsche tiger just died including the Char B1.
Because of the Big Title Screen it was hard to spot but the formation in the middle was being attacked by a spotted 4 Japanese Tanks. This illustrates the tactic that they would use in the forest. As the formation moves forward they would follow along the sides and every now and then they would swoop into the formation attacking it until each tank would be whittled down.
These muzzle flashes confirms my suspicions that the formation is being surrounded as each side is trying to keep them of their backs however it does not seem effective.
Near the end the Panzer is isolated from the formation somehow. This shows 2 possibilities this was a forced isolation or a tactical isolation.
Forced isolation: The Japanese team somehow isolates the main tank from the main formation or the formation had to break due to a unprecedented threat
Tactical isolation: The panzer unit went by itself on the hunt for the Japanese flag tank or to whittle down the surrounding forces a very risky but rewarding tactic
If they win because the Panzer IV starts to Eurobeat drift and gets a 5 kill streak I'm gonna be slightly disappointed
So possibly what happened was the oorai team was being chased by multiple Chi-Ha and Ha-Go then to protect themselves they created the X formation as we could see in a attempt to save some tanks as they try to find flat land, because the Japanese team will have to charge at them which will result tragically for them.
.....(*-ω-)...okay im tired now
Now for some FUN lets backtrack lets look at the other teamsヽ(〃･ω･)ﾉ
The Italians vs the British (゜▽゜;)
yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh its basically a game of cat and mouse (That poor little l3/35 tankette just got yeeted) (I'm gonna cheer for you Italy but I don't see any hope for you)
The Americans (-ω-ゞvs THE FINISH
I want to see the finish break them sherman ankles they gonna run circles on them holy cow another session of vodka and Eurobeat ヽ(￣ω￣(￣ω￣〃)ゝ
The Russians vs The Germans (hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm)(ﾉ･д･)ﾉ
Incoming Stalingrad and Barbarossa comments (The IS2 looking very nice though) Cant wait to see the Panthers and T-34s duel the results will great a bloody bonfire in the history community.